Makerfield by-election Winner

What you need to know

This market is asking who will win a special election for a UK parliamentary seat in the Makerfield constituency — a seat that opened up when the sitting MP, Josh Simons, announced he is resigning. Whoever wins that vote becomes Makerfield's Member of Parliament. A win for Andy Burnham would mean a high-profile figure takes the seat; a win for Robert Kenyon or Rebecca Shepherd would mean an upset over the heavy favourite. The market settles on whichever candidate is officially declared the winner of the Makerfield by-election, expected on June 18, 2026. The result will be confirmed using credible news reporting, with official figures from Wigan Council as the final authority if there is any dispute. One edge case worth knowing: if the result somehow isn't confirmed by December 31, 2026 — for example if the election is delayed or contested — the market resolves as 'Other' rather than any named candidate. None of the provided news headlines relate to the Makerfield by-election. To follow this market, the most useful things to watch for would be official campaign announcements, local polling in the Makerfield area, or any news about the confirmed election date being changed. The market prices Andy Burnham at around 85%, reflecting a strong favourite — but a few real uncertainties remain. By-elections in the UK often see lower turnout than general elections, which can produce surprise results. The political mood can shift between now and June 2026. It's also worth noting that Andy Burnham is currently the Mayor of Greater Manchester; his entry into this race would itself be a notable step, and any change in his candidacy status would immediately reshape the odds. The main uncertainty is simply whether the unexpected happens.

The odds right now

• Andy Burnham+13.0 pts (1w)85%
• Robert Kenyon-12.0 pts (1w)14%
• Rebecca Shepherd-0.2 pts (1w)3%
• Simon Finkelstein0%
• Maria Deery0%
• John Skipworth0%
• James Thomas Bryer0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves June 18, 2026

A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is expected to be held on June 18, 2026, following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Makerfield parliamentary by-election in 2026. If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).

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