Masoud Pezeshkian out by...?

What you need to know

This market asks whether Iran's current president, Masoud Pezeshkian, will leave office before a given date — either by end of June 2026 or end of December 2026. A Yes means he's gone from the presidency for any reason: resignation, removal, death, detention, or being forced out. A No means he's still serving as president when the deadline arrives. The two separate dates are two separate bets on the timing of that departure. The market settles Yes the moment Pezeshkian stops being president — even if he only announces a resignation and hasn't formally left yet. That covers a wide range of scenarios: voluntary resignation, being removed by Iran's Supreme Leader or other authorities, death, or being detained in a way that effectively ends his presidency. If he's still in office and functioning as president when the deadline passes, it resolves No. Iran's official government sources or a strong consensus of credible international reporting would be used to confirm it. No specific recent news about Pezeshkian matched this market. The kind of developments worth watching would be: signs of political conflict between him and Supreme Leader Khamenei, major domestic unrest in Iran, health news, shifts in Iran's foreign policy crises, or any reports of internal power struggles within the Iranian government. Iranian politics are genuinely difficult to read from the outside. Pezeshkian took office in mid-2024, so he's relatively new, and presidents there typically serve four-year terms — which would run past both deadlines. That said, Iran's system gives the Supreme Leader enormous power to sideline or remove a president informally. The market prices the June 2026 version at just 4% and December 2026 at 26%, so it leans heavily toward him staying — but unpredictable events like political crises, health issues, or sudden power shifts are the real wild cards here.

The odds right now

• December 3126%
• June 30+0.1 pts (1w)4%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves December 31, 2026

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Masoud Pezeshkian ceases to be President of Iran for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Masoud Pezeshkian's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Masoud Pezeshkian and the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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