Netanyahu out by...?

What you need to know

This market is asking a simple question: will Benjamin Netanyahu stop being Israel's Prime Minister at any point before the end of 2026? A 'Yes' means he leaves the job — whether by resigning, being voted out, or removed for any reason. A 'No' means he is still Prime Minister when the clock runs out on December 31, 2026. The two separate odds you see (51% for December and 2% for June) reflect two different deadlines for the same basic question. The market settles 'Yes' the moment Netanyahu announces he is leaving or is formally removed — even if he hasn't actually left yet. An announcement is enough; the real-world departure date doesn't need to happen before December 31. If he is still Prime Minister at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026, it resolves 'No'. The judges are official Israeli government statements, or if those are unclear, a strong agreement among credible news outlets. No relevant news was provided here — one headline about U.S.-Iran tensions and one unrelated local story don't directly tell us anything about Netanyahu's political position. The kind of news that would matter: a coalition collapse in Israel's parliament, a legal development in Netanyahu's ongoing corruption trial, or a ceasefire deal that reshapes domestic politics. Israeli coalition politics are genuinely unpredictable — governments can fall quickly or survive longer than anyone expects. Netanyahu has survived repeated political crises before. At the same time, he faces an ongoing criminal trial, shifting coalition partners, and a war that creates both political pressure and political cover. The market sits almost exactly at 50/50 for the full-year deadline, which reflects real disagreement — not a clear answer either way.

The odds right now

• December 31-11.5 pts (1w)51%
• June 30-1.1 pts (1w)2%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves December 31, 2026

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Benjamin Netanyahu ceases to be Prime Minister of Israel for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Benjamin Netanyahu's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Benjamin Netanyahu and the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Related

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