Next French Presidential Election

What you need to know

This market is asking: who will be the next President of France? The election is expected around April 2027, and the market is tracking several possible winners. A 'Yes' for any named candidate means that person wins the presidency — not just reaches the final round, but actually wins the whole election. France uses a two-round system: if no one gets more than 50% in the first vote, the top two candidates face each other in a runoff a few weeks later, and the winner of that runoff becomes president. The market settles on whichever candidate is officially declared the winner of the French presidential election — including any second round. The result will be confirmed using credible news reporting, and if there is any dispute, the official source is France's Ministry of the Interior. The election is expected around April 2027, but could happen earlier if a snap election is called. One edge case to know: if the result is somehow not known by December 31, 2027, the entire market resolves as 'Other', regardless of who was leading. None of the news provided is related to the French presidential election. There is nothing from the given headlines to report here. In general, the kinds of developments worth watching for would be: major French polling shifts, any candidate officially announcing their campaign, changes in the French government or parliament, or any event that might trigger an early election before 2027. Two years is a long time in politics, and France's political landscape has been unusually volatile recently. The market's odds are spread across multiple candidates — Bardella at 24%, Philippe at 17%, Mélenchon at 12% — with the rest going to other possibilities, meaning no single person is considered a clear frontrunner. The two-round system adds another layer of complexity: a candidate can lead in first-round polls but still lose the runoff. Alliances, scandals, economic shifts, or new candidates entering the race could all reshape the picture significantly before April 2027.

The odds right now

• Jordan Bardella+1.0 pts (1w)28%
• Édouard Philippe+1.0 pts (1w)18%
• Jean-Luc Mélenchon+1.0 pts (1w)13%
• Marine Le Pen6%
• Gabriel Attal-1.9 pts (1w)5%
• Dominique de Villepin-0.2 pts (1w)4%
• François Hollande-0.4 pts (1w)3%
• David Lisnard+0.5 pts (1w)3%
• Bruno Retailleau3%
• Raphaël Glucksmann-0.8 pts (1w)2%
• Sarah Knafo2%
• Éric Zemmour-0.1 pts (1w)1%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves April 30, 2027

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).

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