Next Google Gemini Pro Model released on...?

What you need to know

This market is asking: on exactly which date will Google publicly release its next AI model with 'Pro' in the name? A Yes on a specific date means that's the day Google makes a new Gemini Pro model available to anyone — not just testers or invited users, but the general public. The two main options are June 23 or June 30, 2026, with a smaller chance it doesn't happen at all before the market closes. The market settles on whichever calendar date Google first makes a new Gemini Pro model publicly accessible — meaning anyone can sign up or use it, not just people in a private test group. The model must carry a 'Pro' label; Flash or Flash-Lite versions don't count. A preview model that gets promoted to full public availability also qualifies. If no qualifying model is released by June 30, 2026, the 'No release by June 30' option wins. None of the recent headlines provided are directly relevant to this market. There's one note about investment activity in Alphabet (Google's parent company), but nothing about a Gemini Pro launch. The kind of news that would matter here is a Google product announcement, an AI event like Google I/O, or a credible leak about an upcoming model release date. Google controls the release date entirely and hasn't publicly committed to a specific day. The market is split mostly between two dates just a week apart — June 23 and June 30 — which means small timing differences matter a lot here. Google also has a history of surprise announcements and quiet model drops. The criteria are fairly strict too: a private beta or a mislabeled model wouldn't count, so even a partial rollout might not trigger resolution when people expect it to.

The odds right now

• June 30+46.0 pts (1w)59%
• No release by June 30-2.1 pts (1w)20%
• June 23-4.5 pts (1w)14%
• June 18-3.0 pts (1w)4%
• June 26-3.5 pts (1w)3%
• June 16-7.0 pts (1w)2%
• June 17-6.7 pts (1w)1%
• June 22+0.3 pts (1w)1%
• June 14-0.1 pts (1w)0%
• June 25-0.6 pts (1w)0%
• June 19-1.6 pts (1w)0%
• June 24-4.7 pts (1w)0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves June 30, 2026

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public. Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

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