Next Prime Minister of Sweden

What you need to know

This market is asking a simple question: who will be Sweden's next Prime Minister after the September 2026 election? Right now, Ulf Kristersson holds the job. The question is who takes over after voters go to the polls. A win for Magdalena Andersson means the center-left bloc returns to power; a win for Kristersson means he keeps the job; a win for Jimmie Åkesson would be a historic first for his far-right Sweden Democrats party. The market settles on whichever person is officially appointed and actually takes office as Prime Minister after the September 13, 2026 election. The key word is 'officially assumes office' — someone who briefly serves as a caretaker while negotiations happen does not count. If coalition talks drag on and no permanent PM is sworn in by June 30, 2027, the market resolves as 'Other.' The source of truth is the Swedish government's official records, or clear reporting from credible news outlets. None of the provided news headlines relate to Sweden or this market — they cover Ukraine diplomacy and Indian political party splits. There is nothing relevant to point to here. The kind of news that would matter for this market includes Swedish opinion polls, coalition signals between parties, and any major policy debate that shifts voter sentiment ahead of the 2026 election. Sweden's parliamentary system means the election result alone does not pick the PM — it takes coalition negotiations, and those can be unpredictable. The market prices Andersson at 75%, reflecting current polling momentum for the center-left, but over a year remains before the vote. Public opinion can shift significantly in that time. Kristersson still holds office and incumbency has real value. The slim 2% for Åkesson reflects how unlikely his path to PM is, though his party's influence over any right-wing government remains substantial.

The odds right now

• Magdalena Andersson-1.0 pts (1w)75%
• Ulf Kristersson+2.0 pts (1w)24%
• Jimmie Åkesson-1.3 pts (1w)2%
• Ebba Busch-0.1 pts (1w)0%
• Anna-Karin Hatt0%
• Nooshi Dadgostar0%
• Amanda Lind0%
• Simona Mohamsson0%
• Daniel Helldén0%
• Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves September 13, 2026

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and assumes office as Prime Minister of Sweden following the next parliamentary election. To count for resolution, the individual must officially assume office. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister assumes office by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Sweden; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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