OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap

What you need to know

This market is asking two things at once: will OpenAI go public before the end of 2026, and if it does, how big will the company be on its very first day of trading? A "Yes" to any of the value ranges means OpenAI has listed its shares on a stock exchange and investors collectively valued it at that amount — for example, "1T–1.25T" means a valuation between one and one-and-a-quarter trillion dollars. A "No IPO" means it simply never happened in time. If OpenAI holds an IPO before December 31, 2026, the market settles based on the total value of all its shares at the official closing price on that first trading day — calculated as share price multiplied by total shares. That number determines which bracket wins. If no IPO happens by midnight ET on December 31, 2026, the "No IPO" outcome wins. One edge case worth knowing: if trading is interrupted on day one, the rules use whichever official closing price eventually gets published, even if that means waiting for the next trading day. No relevant recent news was matched to this market. The kind of developments that would matter here are: OpenAI filing paperwork with the SEC (called an S-1), announcing an exchange listing, completing a corporate restructuring into a standard for-profit company, or executives publicly signaling an IPO timeline. The biggest uncertainty is simply whether an IPO happens at all — the market currently puts that chance at roughly 47%. OpenAI is structured unusually, with a nonprofit board that controls it, and converting that into a publicly tradeable company is legally and organizationally complex. Even if an IPO does happen, valuation on day one is hard to predict: AI market sentiment shifts fast, interest rates affect how investors value high-growth companies, and there is no public financial data on OpenAI to anchor expectations.

The odds right now

• No IPO by December 31, 2026+28.0 pts (1w)54%
• 750B–1T+10.0 pts (1w)15%
• 1.5T+-17.8 pts (1w)12%
• 1T–1.25T-1.1 pts (1w)11%
• 1.25T–1.5T-9.6 pts (1w)4%
• 500–750B-2.5 pts (1w)1%
• <500B-4.6 pts (1w)1%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves December 31, 2026

This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.

Related

Trade this market on Paridesk — non-custodial, 0.5% fee.