Presidential Election Winner 2028

What you need to know

This market is asking a simple question: who will be the next U.S. President after the 2028 election? Right now, no single candidate is dominating — the top names (JD Vance, Gavin Newsom, Marco Rubio) each sit below 20%, which means the market is genuinely wide open and most of the probability is spread across many other possible candidates not yet named. A 'Yes' for any one person means they win the presidency; everyone else resolves to nothing. The market settles on whoever wins the 2028 U.S. presidential election on November 7, 2028. The official call requires all three sources — the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC — to name the same winner. That triple-confirmation requirement is unusual and worth noting: if the three outlets disagree (as nearly happened in 2020), the market waits. The hard deadline is Inauguration Day, January 20, 2029 — at that point, whoever is actually sworn in wins the market, regardless of media calls. None of the provided news is meaningfully relevant to the 2028 presidential race. One poll shows Trump's approval at 43% in mid-2026, which is very distant background context, but Trump is not currently listed as a candidate in this market. The other headlines are unrelated entirely. The developments worth watching in the future would be formal candidate announcements, primary races beginning in late 2027, and major polling shifts. This is one of the hardest markets to price because it is more than two years away and the candidate field is not yet set. Nobody has formally declared. Party primaries haven't happened. A lot can change — health, scandal, economic conditions, wars, or a surprise candidate entering the race. The spread-out odds (no one above 18%) honestly reflect that uncertainty. Even the frontrunners today could be irrelevant by 2028, and the eventual winner may not even be on anyone's radar right now.

The odds right now

• Marco Rubio+1.9 pts (1w)16%
• JD Vance-1.6 pts (1w)15%
• Gavin Newsom-1.0 pts (1w)15%
• Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez+0.4 pts (1w)5%
• Kamala Harris-0.3 pts (1w)5%
• Jon Ossoff+0.7 pts (1w)4%
• Josh Shapiro-0.1 pts (1w)3%
• Tucker Carlson+0.1 pts (1w)3%
• Pete Buttigieg+0.1 pts (1w)2%
• Andy Beshear2%
• Donald Trump-0.1 pts (1w)2%
• Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson+0.1 pts (1w)2%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves November 7, 2028

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

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