Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

What you need to know

This market is asking who the Republican Party will officially nominate as its presidential candidate for the 2028 election. A 'Yes' on any individual means that person wins the Republican primary process and formally accepts the nomination — meaning they are the Republican on the ballot in November 2028. A 'No' simply means someone else got the nomination instead. Right now, the market shows J.D. Vance as the frontrunner at 31%, Marco Rubio at 25%, and Tucker Carlson at 8%, with the remaining roughly 36% spread across other possible candidates. The market settles as 'Yes' for whichever person wins and officially accepts the Republican Party's 2028 presidential nomination — confirmed by official Republican Party sources. Every other named candidate resolves 'No'. One important detail: if a nominee is somehow replaced after being chosen — say, due to a health issue before election day — that does not change the result. Whoever was originally nominated and accepted is still the 'Yes'. The deadline for resolution is November 7, 2028, which is election day. None of the provided news headlines are relevant to the 2028 Republican nomination race. The only politically adjacent item is a Trump approval rating poll showing 43% approval — which is background context on the current Republican political environment, but does not directly point to any nomination outcome. The kind of news that would actually matter here includes: candidates formally announcing runs, primary debate schedules, Republican Party rule changes, or major shifts in party donor and voter alignment. This is genuinely hard to predict because 2028 is over two years away, and the Republican primary field has not even formed yet. The biggest variable is Donald Trump himself — his influence over the party, whether he remains active in politics, and whom he endorses could reshape the race entirely. Vance and Rubio both currently serve in prominent roles, which helps their visibility, but early frontrunners in presidential primaries frequently lose. Unexpected candidates could also enter. The market's spread across multiple names reflects real, honest uncertainty at this early stage.

The odds right now

• J.D. Vance+3.6 pts (1w)34%
• Marco Rubio25%
• Tucker Carlson-1.3 pts (1w)6%
• Ron DeSantis-0.4 pts (1w)3%
• Donald Trump Jr.+0.1 pts (1w)3%
• Thomas Massie-0.8 pts (1w)2%
• Donald Trump2%
• Greg Abbott+0.9 pts (1w)2%
• Glenn Youngkin1%
• Vivek Ramaswamy1%
• Ivanka Trump1%
• Rand Paul1%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves November 7, 2028

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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