Romanian PM Bolojan out by...?

What you need to know

This market is asking how long Ilie Bolojan will stay as Romania's Prime Minister. There are two separate yes/no questions running in parallel — one asking if he leaves by June 30, 2026, and one asking if he leaves by December 31, 2026. A 'Yes' means he's gone before that date; a 'No' means he's still in the job when the deadline arrives. The market isn't about who replaces him or why he might leave — just whether he stops being PM at all. The market settles as 'Yes' the moment Bolojan announces he is resigning or is removed — even if he hasn't actually left office yet. The announcement itself is enough to trigger a Yes. If he's still Prime Minister when the deadline passes, it resolves No. The decision is based on official Romanian government statements or, if needed, consistent reporting from credible news sources. There's no ambiguity about partial tenure — any exit at all counts as Yes. No specific recent news was provided for this market, so there's nothing concrete to point to right now. The kind of developments worth watching would be: Romanian parliament confidence votes, coalition tensions, early election talk, or any public statements from Bolojan about his plans in office. The June 30 question is a genuine toss-up — the market prices it near 54%, essentially a coin flip. Romanian coalition politics can shift quickly, and a PM installed in a transitional or post-election context often faces early pressure. The December 31 question is heavily one-sided at 98%, meaning the market sees his departure within 2026 as nearly certain. The small remaining uncertainty there is simply the unlikely scenario that he defies expectations and holds on through the full year.

The odds right now

• December 31-1.5 pts (1w)97%
• June 30-16.2 pts (1w)54%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves December 31, 2026

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ilie Bolojan ceases to be Prime Minister of Romania for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Ilie Bolojan's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Ilie Bolojan and the government of Romania; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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