Russia Parliamentary Election Winner

What you need to know

This market asks which political party will win the most seats in Russia's next national parliament election, scheduled for September 2026. The Russian parliament is called the State Duma, and it has 450 seats. A Yes on United Russia means that party — the one closely associated with Vladimir Putin — ends up with more seats than any other party. The other options, New People and the Communist Party, represent the small chance a different party comes out on top. Whoever wins the most seats in the State Duma election settles this market. The election is expected in September 2026, and results need to be confirmed by September 30, 2027 — otherwise the market resolves as 'Other.' If two parties tie on seats, the one with more total votes wins; if that also ties, alphabetical order decides. One important detail: if official Russian results conflict with outside reporting, the market defaults to Russia's own Central Election Commission numbers. None of the provided news headlines relate directly to Russia's 2026 parliamentary election. No relevant developments to report here. The kind of news that would matter going forward includes any changes to Russia's electoral rules, shifts in how opposition parties are treated, or major announcements about which parties will be allowed to participate. The market is heavily one-sided — United Russia is priced at 96% — so this is not really a close call by the market's own assessment. The honest uncertainty is simply whether something unexpected happens: a dramatic political disruption, a surprise ruling barring a party, or an unusual result that defies historical patterns. United Russia has dominated every Duma election for two decades. The main thing to understand is that this is not a competitive multiparty race in the way many countries experience, which is why the odds look the way they do.

The odds right now

• United Russia (ER)+0.3 pts (1w)96%
• New People (NL)-0.5 pts (1w)2%
• Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)+0.1 pts (1w)1%
• Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)+0.1 pts (1w)0%
• A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP)+0.1 pts (1w)0%
• Civic Platform (GP)0%
• Rodina-0.1 pts (1w)0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves September 20, 2026

Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election. If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation. Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.

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