Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

What you need to know

This market is asking whether Russia and Ukraine will formally agree to stop fighting before a given date — and it comes in three versions with three deadlines: June 30, October 31, and December 31, 2026. A 'Yes' means both sides publicly commit to halting military combat, with a specific start date for the pause. A 'No' means the war is still ongoing without such an agreement by that date. The question is purely about a formal, mutual deal — not about whether violence simply slows down. To resolve Yes, both Russia and Ukraine must publicly agree to stop all direct military fighting — either through an official joint announcement or through widespread credible reporting that a deal was mutually accepted. The agreement must name a specific date when fighting stops and must cover the whole conflict, not just certain weapons or certain areas. A vague statement about wanting peace, or one side pausing on its own, does not count. The market settles at 11:59 PM ET on whichever deadline date applies. None of the recent headlines provided are directly relevant to Russia-Ukraine ceasefire talks. There is no recent news here about negotiations, diplomatic contacts between the two countries, or third-party mediation efforts. The kind of developments worth watching for would be: direct talks between Russian and Ukrainian officials, major-power mediation efforts (especially from the US, EU, or China), or public signals from either government about willingness to pause fighting. This is genuinely hard to predict because it depends on the decisions of two governments that have been at war for years and hold deeply opposed positions on territory, security guarantees, and sovereignty. Diplomatic processes can accelerate suddenly or collapse just as fast. The three different deadlines reflect that uncertainty — the market prices June 30 at just 7%, but December 31, 2026 at 46%, showing participants see more time as meaningfully more possible. Even with more time, a formal, mutual, general ceasefire requires both sides to agree simultaneously, which remains a high bar.

The odds right now

• December 31-3.5 pts (1w)46%
• October 31-3.0 pts (1w)28%
• June 306%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves December 31, 2026

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement. Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify. If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.

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