Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?

What you need to know

This market asks whether ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz — a narrow waterway between Iran and Oman that carries a huge share of the world's oil — will return to a normal, healthy level before the end of August 2026. The technical threshold is a 7-day average of 60 or more ship arrivals per day, which represents roughly what typical, undisrupted traffic through the strait looks like. A Yes means shipping is flowing freely again; a No means traffic remains well below normal. It resolves Yes the moment the IMF's shipping-tracking tool (called Portwatch) records a 7-day rolling average of 60 or more ship arrivals in the Strait of Hormuz on any single day up to August 31, 2026 — it only needs to happen once. If that threshold is never reached by then, it resolves No. The IMF Portwatch database is the only official source; ships not tracked there don't count. If Portwatch data contains an obvious clerical error, there's a short window to let corrections come through before the market settles. Very relevant news just broke: a Persian Gulf authority announced the Strait of Hormuz is closed to all transit, citing what it called illegal US military movements — while the US military says a southern route remains open. This is a significant, active dispute happening right now. If a real closure or severe restriction takes hold, it would push traffic further below the 60-ship threshold. The situation appears fluid and unresolved as of mid-July 2026. The market prices this at only 18%, meaning participants currently see recovery as unlikely — but the main genuine uncertainty is how fast, and whether, the current standoff between Iran and the US de-escalates. Geopolitical confrontations like this can shift quickly in either direction: a diplomatic agreement could reopen the strait rapidly, while an escalation could shut it further. There's also the question of what counts as 'open' under the resolution criteria — ships rerouting through a partial corridor may not bring the tracked average back to 60.

The odds right now

• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?-18.0 pts (1w)18%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 31, 2026

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and August 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for August 31, 2026, however, will not be considered. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

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