Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

What you need to know

This market is asking whether ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz — a narrow waterway between Iran and Oman through which a huge share of the world's oil and cargo passes — returns to a healthy, normal level by the end of 2026. The threshold of 60 ships per day (as a rolling 7-day average) represents roughly what normal, undisrupted traffic looks like. A Yes means shipping has recovered; a No means it stayed suppressed throughout the entire period. It resolves Yes the moment the IMF's shipping-tracking tool, Portwatch, records a 7-day average of 60 or more ship arrivals through the strait on any single day before December 31, 2026 — so it can resolve early if traffic recovers. It resolves No only if that threshold is never reached across the entire period. The IMF Portwatch database is the only source that counts; ships not tracked there are ignored, and late data revisions after the final date won't change the outcome. None of the provided news headlines relate to the Strait of Hormuz, shipping traffic, or regional tensions in the Gulf. There is no relevant recent news to point to here. The kinds of developments worth watching would be: changes in Iran-related sanctions or diplomacy, military tensions in the Gulf region, or fresh IMF Portwatch data showing whether ship counts are trending toward or away from that 60-ship threshold. The market currently prices this at 77%, meaning participants lean toward Yes — but real uncertainty remains. The strait's traffic is sensitive to geopolitical events that are hard to predict: a flare-up involving Iran, new sanctions, or a regional conflict could keep ships away. Conversely, diplomacy or easing tensions could restore traffic quickly. The long deadline (end of 2026) gives more time for a recovery to happen, which works in favor of Yes — but a lot can change in that window.

The odds right now

• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?+1.0 pts (1w)77%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves December 31, 2026

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for December 31, 2026, however, will not be considered. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

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