Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

What you need to know

This market is asking whether ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz — a narrow waterway between Iran and Oman that carries a huge share of the world's oil and cargo — returns to a normal, healthy level by June 30, 2026. The threshold of 60 ships per day (as a 7-day average) represents roughly what normal, undisrupted traffic looks like through that passage. A Yes means shipping has recovered; a No means it remains suppressed below that level. This settles Yes the moment IMF Portwatch — the International Monetary Fund's official shipping-data tracker — records a 7-day rolling average of 60 or more ship arrivals at the Strait of Hormuz on any single day through June 30, 2026. If that number is never reached by then, it resolves No. The 7-day average smooths out daily noise, so one busy day alone won't trigger it — the average across the surrounding week needs to hit 60. IMF Portwatch is the only data source that counts; other trackers are not considered. One headline is directly relevant: a report from June 9, 2026 states that Iran shot down a US helicopter, prompting a vow of response from President Trump. That kind of military escalation in or near the Gulf region is exactly the type of event that disrupts Strait of Hormuz shipping. The other headlines in the provided news have no connection to this market. The Iran-US incident is the key development to watch as it could affect whether commercial ships feel safe transiting the strait. This market is heavily skewed — the market currently prices a Yes at just 10%, meaning participants strongly expect traffic to stay below normal. The main uncertainty isn't really a coin-toss between two equal sides; it's whether something unexpected reverses the disruption quickly. The Iran-US military tension reported in recent news suggests conditions are actively worsening, not improving. What could shift things: a sudden diplomatic agreement, a ceasefire, or a rapid de-escalation — but those are difficult to predict and, right now, not on the visible horizon.

The odds right now

• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?-11.0 pts (1w)10%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves June 30, 2026

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 30, 2026, however, will not be considered. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

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