Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

What you need to know

This market asks whether ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz — the narrow waterway between Iran and Oman that carries a large share of the world's oil — will recover to a normal, healthy level before July 31, 2026. The threshold of 60 ships per day (as a 7-day average) is the marker for 'normal.' A Yes means traffic bounced back; a No means it stayed suppressed, meaning fewer ships than that were crossing on a typical day. It resolves Yes the moment the IMF's shipping tracker, Portwatch, shows the 7-day rolling average of daily ship arrivals at the Strait hitting 60 or above — even once, at any point before the deadline. It resolves No if that level is never reached by July 31, 2026. The count covers cargo ships, oil tankers, and bulk carriers, but only vessels that Portwatch itself reports. One important edge case: if Portwatch hasn't published data for July 31 within 14 days after that date, the market settles on whatever data exists at that point. The most relevant headline here is significant: U.S. military strikes reportedly targeted Iranian defenses near the Strait of Hormuz on June 10, 2026, with CENTCOM describing three waves of strikes. This kind of military action directly bears on this market — it could disrupt or deter shipping traffic, or alternatively, if it removes a threat, could eventually allow traffic to recover. The other headlines in the feed appear unrelated to Hormuz shipping. This is genuinely hard to predict because it sits at the intersection of geopolitics and physical logistics. Military conflict near a shipping lane creates fear among ship operators, who may reroute vessels regardless of whether the water is technically passable. The market currently prices a Yes at only 32%, meaning it leans toward traffic staying below normal — but the situation is actively evolving. How quickly tensions ease, whether Iran retaliates, and how insurers and shipping companies respond are all unknowns that could shift things quickly in either direction before July 31.

The odds right now

• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?+17.0 pts (1w)51%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 31, 2026

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and July 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for July 31, 2026, however, will not be considered. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Related

Trade this market on Paridesk — non-custodial, 0.5% fee.