Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?

What you need to know

This market asks whether ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz — a narrow waterway between Iran and Oman that carries a huge share of the world's oil — will return to something close to normal levels before June 15, 2026. 'Normal' here has a specific meaning: an average of at least 60 ships per day passing through over a rolling 7-day window. A Yes means traffic recovered; a No means it stayed significantly below that threshold. The market settles Yes the moment the IMF's shipping-tracker tool (called Portwatch) records a 7-day average of 60 or more ship arrivals at the Strait of Hormuz on any single day up to June 15, 2026. If that number is never reached, it settles No after data for June 15 is published. The count only includes commercial vessels like tankers and cargo ships — and only ones that appear in IMF Portwatch's own data. One important edge case: if the data looks clearly wrong due to a clerical error, the market can stay open a few extra days while corrections are made. None of the news provided relates to the Strait of Hormuz or regional shipping. There is no relevant recent information to draw from here. The kinds of developments worth watching would be: changes in Iran-related tensions, US or regional diplomatic activity affecting the strait, or any reports from shipping trackers about vessel traffic trends in the area. The market is priced at just 1%, meaning participants collectively see almost no chance of a Yes. At that level, the main uncertainty is not 'will it or won't it' — it's simply whether something completely unexpected triggers a sudden traffic recovery before June 15. Given the deadline is very close and the threshold appears far from current traffic levels, the market is heavily one-sided. The small remaining uncertainty comes from the possibility of a sudden geopolitical shift or data surprise that no one currently anticipates.

The odds right now

• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?-2.4 pts (1w)1%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves June 15, 2026

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and June 15, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 15, 2026, however, will not be considered. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

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