Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by...?

What you need to know

This market asks whether Tesla (the electric car company) and SpaceX (the rocket company) will officially announce they are merging into one company — or that one is buying the other. Both companies are controlled by Elon Musk, which is why this idea gets discussed. A Yes means a formal announcement of a deal where one company takes controlling ownership of the other. A No means no such announcement happens before the deadline. The market settles Yes the moment Tesla or SpaceX officially announces a merger or acquisition — even if the actual deal hasn't closed yet. The announcement alone is enough. However, a small investment or partnership would not count; one company must gain a controlling interest in the other, meaning ownership of more than 50% of equity or equivalent decision-making power. The deadline for the September version is September 30, 2026, and December 31, 2026 for the latest version. No announcement by then means it resolves No. None of the recent headlines provided are relevant to a Tesla-SpaceX merger. There is no news here about Elon Musk, Tesla, or SpaceX deal activity. The kind of news that would matter for this market would be statements from Musk, Tesla's board, or SpaceX about combining the two companies — or credible reporting from major financial outlets about deal talks. The market currently prices the September deadline at around 39% — which is notably high for a deal of this scale with no confirmed talks. The core difficulty is that this would be an extraordinarily complex transaction: Tesla is a publicly traded company with millions of shareholders, while SpaceX is private. Regulatory scrutiny would be intense. Musk has discussed the idea publicly before but has not confirmed a move toward it. That gap between speculation and a formal announcement is the main source of uncertainty here.

The odds right now

• December 31-4.0 pts (1w)37%
• September 3036%
• June 30-0.9 pts (1w)1%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves December 31, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Tesla, Inc. will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with SpaceX, or vice versa, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement by Tesla or SpaceX within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs. Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company acquires a controlling interest in the other company. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Tesla or SpaceX; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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