Total Internet Blackout in Iran by...?

What you need to know

This market is asking whether Iran's government will essentially turn off the internet for the entire country — not just slow it down or block some sites, but a near-complete shutdown. A 'Yes' means Iran's internet traffic collapses to almost nothing (less than 1% of its normal peak level) for at least six hours straight. A 'No' means that never happens before the deadline. The two sub-markets just ask whether it happens by June 30 or by the later deadline of July 31. The market settles 'Yes' the moment Cloudflare's traffic data for Iran shows internet usage falling to 1% or below its recent peak for six consecutive hourly readings — that's roughly six hours of near-total darkness. Cloudflare Radar is an independent internet monitoring tool that tracks real traffic, not government reports. The six-hour window just needs to start before the deadline; the market stays open a little longer to confirm all six data points. If Cloudflare's service itself goes down permanently, credible news reporting can be used as a backup. The news from June 12 describes a significant military and diplomatic escalation: Iran apparently struck U.S. targets and closed the Strait of Hormuz, while reports also mention possible deal talks and Trump pulling back from strikes. Geopolitical crises and domestic unrest are historically the main triggers for internet shutdowns in Iran — the government has cut access before during periods of instability. This level of tension is exactly the kind of situation that makes a blackout more plausible than it would be in calmer times. The core difficulty is that a total blackout is a rare, extreme action — Iran has never permanently shut down the internet, though it has done near-total shutdowns before (notably in 2019). The situation is genuinely volatile right now, with active military escalation, but shutdowns are political decisions made in secret and can happen in hours or not at all. The market prices the July deadline at 54% — basically a coin flip — which honestly reflects how unpredictable high-stakes government decisions under pressure can be.

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 31, 2026

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a total internet blackout occurs in Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM (UTC+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, a “total internet blackout” occurring means that, according to Cloudflare Radar data for Iran, total bytes transferred have fallen to 1.0% or less of the last 4 weeks’ Max for at least six consecutive hourly data points, as shown in the Traffic trends → Bytes transferred (Total bytes) chart for the last 4 weeks (https://radar.cloudflare.com/traffic/ir?dateRange=28d). The relevant figures for each hourly data point are listed in this chart as “__% of Max”. The Max for each data point will be the Max figure used in the chart by Cloudflare. Only the first of the relevant consecutive hourly data points must fall before this market’s resolution time. If required, to confirm the full sequence, the market will remain open until all relevant data points are observed. The primary resolution source for this market will be Cloudflare Radar data for Iran, specifically the Iran Traffic trends chart for the last 4 weeks found at https://radar.cloudflare.com/traffic/ir?dateRange=28d. If this resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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