Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...?

What you need to know

This market is asking when — if ever — the US officially announces it is ending its naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway between Iran and Oman that roughly 20% of the world's oil passes through. A 'Yes' means the US makes a clear, official public statement that the blockade is over by a given date. A 'No' means no such announcement comes by that date — the blockade either continues or ends quietly without a formal declaration. For this to settle 'Yes', the US government — Trump himself, the military, or an official representative — must publicly and explicitly state that the blockade is lifted or ending, by 11:59 PM ET on the chosen date. A Truth Social post or official video from Trump counts. What does not count: leaks, unnamed sources, or ships simply resuming passage without an announcement. Even if oil tankers start moving freely again, the market stays 'No' unless there is a clear, formal statement saying the blockade is over. The most relevant headline is that Iran shot down a US helicopter on June 9, 2026, and Trump vowed a response — which suggests the conflict is escalating, not winding down. That makes a near-term announcement lifting the blockade look less likely, at least for the June 15 date. The other headlines (visa rulings, an immigration bill, a bond offering in Pakistan) are unrelated to this market. The core difficulty is that this situation depends entirely on US-Iran diplomacy — one of the most unpredictable relationships in geopolitics. A deal could come suddenly, or the standoff could drag on for months. The June 9 helicopter incident adds tension rather than removing it. There is also a procedural wrinkle: even if the blockade quietly fades in practice, this market only resolves 'Yes' on a formal announcement — so the real-world situation and the market outcome could diverge.

The odds right now

• July 31-16.0 pts (1w)57%
• June 30-19.0 pts (1w)39%
• June 15-15.0 pts (1w)11%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves June 30, 2026

On April 12, 2026, President Donald Trump announced that the United States will blockade the Strait of Hormuz. You can read more about that here: https://www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/live-blog/live-updates-us-iran-fail-reach-deal-peace-talks-day-negotiations-rcna315918. This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces the end of the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Qualifying statements must clearly and explicitly indicate that the United States has lifted, ended, or will lift or end its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on a specified date or use equivalently definitive language unambiguously signaling that such blockade has ceased or is set to cease on a specified date (e.g., statements unambiguously indicating that US naval activity in the relevant area has ceased will qualify). Statements that merely describe actions inconsistent with the blockade (e.g., "Iran resumed shipping through the Strait of Hormuz") without explicitly indicating the blockade as lifted will not alone suffice. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify. Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account) will qualify. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the blockade is effectively enforced or whether maritime traffic resumes absent a qualifying announcement will not be considered.

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