Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by...?

What you need to know

This market is asking when — if ever — Trump or the U.S. government will officially declare that a ceasefire with Iran is over. Right now, there appears to be some kind of ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran in place. A 'Yes' for any given date means the U.S. makes a clear, official announcement before that date saying the ceasefire is no longer active. A 'No' means no such announcement happens — either because the ceasefire holds, or because it quietly fades without a formal declaration. This resolves Yes only if Trump, the U.S. government, or U.S. military makes a clear, official, public statement saying no ceasefire with Iran is in effect — before the chosen date's deadline. That statement can come from Trump's Truth Social, official government channels, or a broad consensus of credible reporting. Critically, several things do NOT qualify: a ceasefire simply expiring without anyone formally ending it, reports of violations, statements from unnamed sources, or a new peace deal that replaces the old one but still maintains a halt in hostilities. Very relevant news just surfaced: on June 9, 2026, Iran reportedly shot down a U.S. Apache helicopter, and Trump publicly stated the U.S. 'must' respond. This is a significant escalation — it is exactly the kind of event that could lead to an official announcement that the ceasefire is no longer in effect. However, a vow to respond is not the same as a formal declaration ending the ceasefire, which is what this market specifically requires. Whether Trump follows that statement with a qualifying official declaration is what matters here. The core tension is the gap between what's happening on the ground and what officially gets declared. Even if hostilities resume in practice, this market only resolves Yes on a specific, formal announcement — and those can be delayed, worded carefully, or avoided entirely for diplomatic reasons. Trump's language has been strong, but 'we must respond' is not yet a ceasefire-ending declaration under the rules. The big uncertainty is whether the helicopter incident triggers a formal break, or whether both sides stay in a grey zone where the ceasefire technically exists on paper even as tensions escalate.

The odds right now

• June 3021%
• June 1513%
• June 125%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves June 30, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. publicly and officially announces, between Market Creation and the End Date (11:59 PM ET) that no ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran is in effect. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that there is no longer any commitment in effect between the U.S. and Iran to refrain from military hostilities. Statements that the US is no longer committed to such an agreement will qualify. The expiration of a prior agreed ceasefire period without extension will not alone qualify. Statements that merely reference violations, breaches, or non-compliance with the ceasefire will not alone qualify. Announcements of a new agreement (e.g, a broader peace framework or ceasefire extension) that supersedes the initial ceasefire agreement while maintaining a mutual commitment to a halt in military hostilities will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government and the U.S. military; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, and leaks will not qualify. Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account), and videos posted on his social media accounts, will qualify. Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the ceasefire actually ends in practice or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.

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