Trump declassifies new UFO files by...?

What you need to know

This market is asking whether the Trump administration will officially release previously secret government documents about UFOs or unexplained aerial phenomena — what the government calls 'unidentified aerial phenomena' or UAP — before a specific date. A Yes means real, new documents actually become public. A No means nothing new is released, or only announcements are made without the files actually appearing. To resolve Yes, the Trump administration must actually publish or release files about UAP or extraterrestrial life that were not already publicly available — before 11:59 PM ET on the chosen date. An announcement or promise to release files does not count; the documents themselves must be out. The U.S. government's own official records are the primary source used to judge this, though widespread credible news reporting can also count as confirmation. None of the provided recent headlines relate to UFO or UAP declassification. The news is focused on a U.S.-Iran nuclear agreement. There is no relevant recent news to point to here. The kind of development worth watching for would be an official White House or Pentagon statement announcing a UAP document release, or credible reporting that new files have been made public. The core tension is timing and political priority. The market prices the full June 30 deadline at 67%, meaning participants see it as more likely than not — but far from certain. The Trump administration has shown interest in UAP transparency, but declassification involves multiple agencies and can stall quietly. There is also a real edge case: announcements without actual document releases do not count, which means even a high-profile statement could still resolve this No if the files never appear on schedule.

The odds right now

• June 30-20.5 pts (1w)63%
• June 2257%
• June 15-36.0 pts (1w)28%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves June 30, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration declassifies any files pertaining to extraterrestrial life and/or unexplained aerial phenomena which were not previously publicly available by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For purposes of this market, the “Trump administration” includes the Executive Office of the President and all executive branch departments, agencies, and subordinate offices under presidential authority during the Trump presidency, including the Department of Defense and its components. Announcements of declassifications that are not implemented within this market's timeframe will not count. The primary resolution source for declassification will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Related

Trade this market on Paridesk — non-custodial, 0.5% fee.