Trump declassifies new UFO files by...?

What you need to know

This market is asking whether the Trump administration will officially release government documents about UFOs or extraterrestrial life — documents that have never been public before — and specifically, by which date that happens. There are three possible deadlines: June 15, June 22, or June 30, 2026. A 'Yes' on any date means new, previously hidden files actually become available to the public by that cutoff. A 'No' means they don't release anything new in time, or they only announce a future release without actually delivering the files. To settle as Yes, the Trump administration — meaning any U.S. government agency, including the Pentagon — must actually publish or release files about UFOs or extraterrestrial life that were not previously available to the public, before 11:59 PM ET on the chosen date. The key edge case: a promise or announcement does not count. The files have to genuinely appear. Resolution will be based on official U.S. government sources or, if needed, a consensus among credible news outlets. No release by the deadline means it resolves No. None of the recent news provided relates to UFO or UAP declassification. The headlines are about military strikes in Venezuela and a court ruling over the Kennedy Center. There is no recent reporting here pointing toward or away from a document release. The kind of news that would matter is any official government announcement, executive order, or Pentagon statement about releasing UAP-related files. Several things make this genuinely hard to call. Declassification decisions involve multiple powerful agencies — the Pentagon, intelligence community, and White House — that don't always move quickly or agree. Even when presidents signal openness to transparency on UAP topics, the actual release of files can stall for bureaucratic or national-security reasons. The market currently prices the final June 30 deadline at 48%, meaning participants are roughly split. The earlier dates sit much lower, suggesting the market sees a release as possible but not imminent. Timing, not just whether it happens, is the real puzzle here.

The odds right now

• June 3048%
• June 2214%
• June 154%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves June 30, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration declassifies any files pertaining to extraterrestrial life and/or unexplained aerial phenomena which were not previously publicly available by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For purposes of this market, the “Trump administration” includes the Executive Office of the President and all executive branch departments, agencies, and subordinate offices under presidential authority during the Trump presidency, including the Department of Defense and its components. Announcements of declassifications that are not implemented within this market's timeframe will not count. The primary resolution source for declassification will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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