Trump meets with Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei by...?

What you need to know

This market asks whether Donald Trump and Mojtaba Khamenei will physically meet and interact face-to-face before a given deadline. Mojtaba Khamenei is the son of Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and is widely seen as a potential future Supreme Leader himself — he is not currently the head of state, but holds significant behind-the-scenes power. A Yes means the two men meet in person and actually interact — a handshake, a conversation, something direct. A No means no such meeting happens. The market settles Yes only if Trump and Mojtaba Khamenei have a documented, in-person interaction before 11:59 PM ET on the listed date — confirmed by multiple credible news outlets. The criteria are specific: just being in the same building or room doesn't count. There must be a clear, direct exchange — words, a handshake, some obvious personal contact. If that happens but is only reported by a single or unreliable source, it may not be enough to resolve Yes. The most relevant news is that Trump reportedly called off planned military strikes on Iran following high-level talks — while also threatening to hit Iran 'very hard' and take control of its energy infrastructure. These headlines paint a picture of intense, volatile US-Iran tension rather than diplomatic warmth. There is no reporting of any contact between Trump and Mojtaba Khamenei specifically. The situation to watch is whether US-Iran negotiations escalate toward direct high-level personal contact. The core difficulty is that this meeting would be historically extraordinary — the US and Iran have had no normal diplomatic relations for decades, and Mojtaba Khamenei is not even Iran's official head of state, making a direct Trump meeting deeply unusual by any standard. The recent news actually points toward confrontation, not diplomacy. The market prices the most generous deadline (end of 2026) at just 7%, reflecting how remote this scenario is. The main uncertainty is simply whether something completely unexpected happens, not a genuine two-sided debate.

The odds right now

• December 317%
• July 31-0.9 pts (1w)2%
• June 30-0.5 pts (1w)1%
• June 15+0.1 pts (1w)0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves December 31, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A meeting is defined as any encounter where both specified individuals are present and interact with each other in person. An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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