US announces blockade on Iran by...?

What you need to know

This market asks whether the US will formally announce a naval blockade targeting Iran's maritime traffic — ships going to or from Iranian ports, or passing through the Strait of Hormuz — before a given date. A Yes means the US publicly declares it is blocking or intercepting Iranian shipping as a firm, decided policy. A No means no such official announcement happens, even if tensions stay high. The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow waterway between Iran and Oman through which a large share of the world's oil travels by sea. The market resolves Yes the moment a senior US official — the President, the Pentagon, the State Department, or military command — makes a clear, formal announcement that a blockade is in effect or has been decided. It does not need to use the word 'blockade,' but it must leave no doubt that interdicting Iranian maritime traffic is current US policy, not a threat or possibility. Leaks, rumors, and vague warnings don't count. Critically, once a qualifying announcement is made, the market resolves Yes even if the blockade is later called off. Very recent headlines from July 12, 2026 report that the US struck Iran and that Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz closed, though a maritime organization says the Strait remains open in practice. Iran's parliament speaker issued strong warnings after what the headlines describe as an exchange of strikes. These are significant developments directly relevant to this market — the question is whether any US official statement accompanying these strikes rises to the level of a formal blockade announcement as defined by the resolution criteria. The core difficulty right now is interpretive: military strikes have happened and Iran declared the Strait closed, but a blockade announcement requires a specific, unambiguous, official US declaration — not just action on the water. It is genuinely unclear from the available headlines whether the US has made or will make that formal declaration. Beyond that, the situation appears to be moving fast, which makes prediction harder: escalation, diplomacy, or a ceasefire could each shift things rapidly in either direction before the deadlines.

The odds right now

• December 31+30.0 pts (1w)59%
• August 3143%
• July 31+21.0 pts (1w)33%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves December 31, 2026

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the imposition of a naval blockade on Iran, or on ships traveling to or from Iranian ports, or on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The announcement need not specify the full scope, duration, or enforcement parameters of the blockade. An announcement of a partial or targeted blockade qualifies, including one limited to specific vessel categories, port areas, or Iranian coastal zones, provided it clearly announces the interdiction of Iranian maritime traffic as an unconditional policy. A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present implementation of a blockade, previously-unannounced prior implementation of a blockade, or definitive decision to implement a blockade. A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify a blockade. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe a blockade, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference a blockade by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of a blockade is clearly and unambiguously communicated. A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify. The following do not qualify: - Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official; - Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government; - Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or implement a blockade; - Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and - Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional imposition rather than announcing a present and decided position. Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether a blockade is ever actually implemented. Resolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or the official representatives of the United States government.

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