US announces location or date of US x Iran deal signing by...?

What you need to know

This market is asking whether the US government will make a firm, official announcement — naming a specific place or calendar date — for signing a formal written deal with Iran, before a set deadline. It is not asking whether a deal gets signed, only whether a concrete signing announcement is made. A Yes means someone like Trump publicly commits to 'we will sign in Oman on June 20' or similar specifics. A No means talks continue but no such firm announcement comes through in time. The market settles Yes only if a clear, definitive statement — from Trump, the US government, or military — names either a specific location or a specific date for a written US-Iran agreement signing, by 11:59 PM ET on the relevant deadline date. Vague language like 'soon' or 'if Iran agrees' does not count. Crucially, an actual signing without a prior qualifying announcement also does not count. Trump's own Truth Social posts or social media videos do qualify. The judge is official US statements or a consensus of credible news reporting. One headline from June 13, 2026 mentions Trump planning to discuss an Iran war deal at the G7, with reported growing confidence around a deal. That is relevant context — it suggests active diplomacy — but it falls short of the specific, firm announcement this market requires. The other headlines about Indian seafarers and landscaping appear unrelated. There is no confirmed qualifying announcement visible in the provided news. The core difficulty is the gap between diplomatic momentum and a firm, official announcement meeting the strict criteria here. Talks can be progressing, confidence can be growing, and Trump can be discussing the deal publicly — and still no single statement qualifies because it lacks a named location or date. Geopolitical negotiations often stay deliberately vague until the last moment. The tight June deadline and the strict definition of what counts make this genuinely hard to call even when the general direction of talks seems positive.

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves June 16, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces that the United States will sign a written agreement with the Islamic Republic of Iran in a specific location or on a specific date by June 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Qualifying statements must clearly and definitively state that the United States or an authorized official of the United States will sign a written agreement to which both the United States and Iran are parties, at a specified location and/or on a specified date. Qualifying statements must either identify a country or more specifically defined location in which the signing will take place, or the specific calendar date on which the specified signing will happen. Statements limited to a general location or timeframe not meeting this standard will not count. Non-definitive statements, including conditional, exploratory, or tentative statements do not count (e.g. "the signing will take place if Iran agrees" or "we might sign on June 13"). Statements that merely describe a signing without firmly scheduling a location or date will not qualify. Statements that announce a meeting without indicating that the signing of a written agreement will occur will not qualify. Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account) will qualify. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution. This market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether an agreement is signed absent a qualifying announcement will not be considered. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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