US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?

What you need to know

This market asks whether the US and Iran will sign a formal nuclear agreement before the end of 2026. A 'Yes' means both countries publicly commit to a deal — covering what Iran can or cannot do with nuclear research and weapons development. A 'No' means no such deal is announced, whether because talks collapsed, stalled, or simply ran out of time. The deal doesn't need to be in force yet — just officially agreed and announced. The market settles 'Yes' the moment a mutual, publicly announced agreement between the US and Iran on nuclear issues exists — confirmed either by an official statement from either government, or by overwhelming credible reporting. The deadline is December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. A multilateral deal that includes both countries (like the original JCPOA was) would count. If no such announcement happens by then, it resolves 'No' — regardless of how close talks may have gotten. The most recent news is highly significant and points sharply away from a deal: as of June 10, 2026, the US and Iran are in active military conflict. US strikes have hit Iranian military targets following the downing of an American Apache helicopter in the Strait of Hormuz, and Jordan intercepted Iranian missiles amid the escalation. Active armed conflict between two parties makes diplomatic agreements extremely difficult to reach in the short term. The core tension here is stark: the market still prices a 66% chance of Yes, but the latest news describes open military conflict between the US and Iran — exactly the kind of crisis that typically makes formal agreements harder, not easier. The main uncertainty is whether this conflict leads to escalation that prevents any deal, or paradoxically creates pressure for a diplomatic resolution before 2026 ends. History shows both paths are possible after military clashes, but the window is now much narrower and the stakes much higher.

The odds right now

• US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?+10.0 pts (1w)76%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves December 31, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.

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