US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31?

What you need to know

This market asks whether the US and Iran will sign a formal nuclear agreement before the end of July 2026. A 'Yes' means both countries publicly announce a deal — covering limits on Iran's nuclear research or weapons program — within that window. A 'No' means no such deal is announced in time, whether because talks collapsed, stalled, or never seriously started. The deal could be a two-country agreement or a broader multilateral one, like the 2015 JCPOA, as long as both the US and Iran are parties. The market settles 'Yes' the moment an official, publicly announced agreement between the US and Iran is confirmed — either by a government announcement from Washington or Tehran, or by overwhelming coverage from credible news outlets. The deadline is July 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM Eastern Time. Crucially, the deal only needs to be announced by then — it does not need to be in effect yet. If no deal is announced by that moment, it resolves 'No', regardless of whether negotiations are ongoing. The most recent headlines paint a picture of active military conflict, not diplomacy. As of June 11, 2026, the US was conducting strikes on Iran, Iran was targeting US-linked bases in the region, a ceasefire appeared to be breaking down, and President Trump was threatening to seize control of Iran's oil industry. This is about as far from a negotiating table as it gets — open hostilities are typically the opposite condition needed for a nuclear agreement to take shape. The core tension is stark: the market prices this at roughly 30%, meaning it isn't ruled out, but the active military confrontation reported in mid-June makes a signed deal within roughly seven weeks look like a steep climb. The main genuine uncertainty is whether a sudden, dramatic shift — a ceasefire, a backchannel breakthrough, outside pressure from other countries — could change the dynamic fast. Diplomatic history does contain surprise reversals. But with both sides exchanging strikes so recently, the path to 'Yes' is narrow and would require a sharp change in direction.

The odds right now

• US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31?-1.5 pts (1w)44%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 31, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.

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