US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?

What you need to know

This market asks whether the US and Iran will sign a formal nuclear agreement before the end of June 2026. A 'Yes' means both countries officially announce a deal — covering limits on Iran's nuclear program, weapons development, or both. A 'No' means no such deal is publicly announced by the deadline, even if talks were ongoing. The bar is a real, mutual, announced agreement — not just negotiations, not a ceasefire, not a partial understanding. The market settles 'Yes' the moment both the US and Iran publicly announce a mutual nuclear agreement — even if that deal hasn't yet gone into force. The deadline is June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM Eastern Time. Other countries can be part of the deal and it still counts. The confirmation can come from an official government announcement or from overwhelming, credible news reporting. If no announced deal exists by that moment, it resolves 'No' — no exceptions for 'almost' or 'in progress'. The most recent news is directly relevant — and it points strongly away from a deal. As of June 10, 2026, the US launched military strikes against Iran following Iran shooting down a US Apache helicopter. Both countries are now in active military confrontation. That kind of escalation makes diplomatic agreement in the next three weeks extraordinarily difficult. This is exactly the type of development that shifts the ground completely under any ongoing negotiations. Normally this would be a hard question to predict because diplomacy is slow and unpredictable. But right now, the situation is unusually clear in one direction: the market prices this at only 20% even before accounting for the recent military strikes, and those strikes make a signed nuclear deal within three weeks look very unlikely. The honest uncertainty here is not 'will they or won't they negotiate' — it's whether some sudden, dramatic reversal could occur in an extremely short window. That's possible, but the market reflects how improbable it seems.

The odds right now

• US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?-9.0 pts (1w)19%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves June 30, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.

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