US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

What you need to know

This market asks whether the United States will physically hold Iranian enriched uranium before the end of 2026 — not just reach a deal about it, but actually have it in hand. Enriched uranium is nuclear fuel material that Iran has been producing; the question is whether the US ends up with actual possession of some of it, through a negotiated handover, a military seizure, or any other means. A Yes means the uranium moved from Iranian control into American hands. A No means it stayed out of US custody. The market settles Yes only if the US government officially confirms it physically holds Iranian enriched uranium — or if credible news reporting broadly agrees that happened — by December 31, 2026. The key rule: a signed deal or announced agreement does NOT count. The uranium has to have actually changed hands. The US could obtain it peacefully through a nuclear agreement, or by force, and either would qualify. If the deadline passes with no confirmed physical transfer, it resolves No. The provided headlines from June 2026 describe a serious military escalation: Iran reportedly shot down a US Apache helicopter, and the US launched what it called self-defense strikes against Iran. This is directly relevant — open military conflict between the two countries could make a negotiated handover far less likely in the near term, while also raising the possibility of a forcible seizure. The situation appears to be actively developing and volatile. The core tension here is that two very different paths could lead to Yes — a peace deal or a military takeover — and both are genuinely uncertain. The recent news of US airstrikes and a downed helicopter suggests diplomacy is under serious strain, making a negotiated transfer harder to imagine right now. But military escalation could also shift things quickly in unpredictable directions. The market prices the December deadline at 19%, reflecting that most participants see this as unlikely but not impossible given how fast the situation is moving.

The odds right now

• December 31-2.0 pts (1w)19%
• June 30-0.6 pts (1w)2%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves December 31, 2026

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify. Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure. A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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