US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?

What you need to know

This market asks whether the US and Iran will sign a formal, permanent peace agreement before a given deadline — not just a pause in fighting, but a lasting end to military hostilities between the two countries. A 'Yes' means an official deal is signed and announced, something that would be a major historic shift. A 'No' means no such deal exists by the deadline, even if relations improve somewhat or temporary ceasefires come and go. The market settles 'Yes' only if both governments either sign a formal written agreement — like a treaty — that explicitly ends military hostilities permanently, or both governments publicly confirm such a deal has been finalized. The bar is deliberately high: progress in talks, a temporary ceasefire, or hopeful statements from officials do not count. The resolution criteria even name a specific example — a ceasefire extension from April 7, 2026 — as the kind of thing that would NOT qualify. The most recent news is quite significant and points away from resolution. As of June 1, 2026, Iran has suspended talks with the US and announced plans to potentially block the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global shipping lane. US and Iranian forces have reportedly traded strikes, and a ceasefire appears to be under strain. Japan's prime minister is urging open passage through Hormuz, signaling international concern. These are active conflict signals, not peace signals — exactly the kind of developments this market tracks. The core difficulty is that permanent peace deals between long-term adversaries are rare and hard to predict even in calmer moments — and current conditions look anything but calm. The market prices a deal at 69% by end of 2026, which is notable given that talks appear to have broken down as of early June. That gap between the current news and the market odds is itself a source of tension: either the market expects a dramatic reversal, or it's pricing in uncertainty about how reliable the news snapshot truly is. A lot can change in seven months.

The odds right now

• December 31-5.0 pts (1w)68%
• October 31-5.5 pts (1w)59%
• August 31-8.5 pts (1w)43%
• July 31-7.0 pts (1w)32%
• June 30-8.0 pts (1w)17%
• June 15-9.0 pts (1w)5%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves December 31, 2026

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify. A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met: - The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria. - Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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