What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by June 30?

What you need to know

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States agrees to the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Continued enrichment of uranium by Iran refers to US acceptance of the enrichment of, or the right to enrich, any quantity of uranium by Iran for any future amount of time. Agreements that include limitations, restrictions, or specified terms (e.g., caps on enrichment level, monitoring requirements) will qualify, provided the United States accepts continued enrichment. The United States will be considered to have agreed to the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran if: - Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that they have definitively agreed to accept the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran. - Continued enrichment of uranium by Iran is included as part of a treaty or deal that is formally established between the United States and Iran, either through signing or other formal means. Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify. Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will be considered, regardless of when or whether the specified action is begun. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump and the US government and their official representatives; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.

The odds right now

• Unfreeze Iranian Assets+63.0 pts (1w)87%
• Troop Withdrawal+62.0 pts (1w)73%
• Enrichment of Uranium+14.9 pts (1w)19%
• Transit Fees in the Strait of Hormuz+3.9 pts (1w)8%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves June 30, 2026

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States agrees to unfreeze any Iranian assets by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Unfreezing Iranian assets refers to the release, transfer, or restoration of Iranian access to any assets that are frozen, blocked, or otherwise inaccessible due to U.S. sanctions or restrictions. This includes both assets held in the United States and assets held in foreign jurisdictions where access is restricted due to U.S. sanctions. The removal of sanctions which freeze these assets will also be considered to be unfreezing Iranian assets. The United States will be considered to have agreed to unfreeze Iranian assets if: - Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States has agreed to unfreeze any Iranian assets. - The unfreezing of any Iranian assets is included as part of a treaty or deal that is formally established between the United States and Iran, either through signing or other formal means. Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify. Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will be considered, regardless of when or whether the specified action is begun. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.

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