What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit in June 2026?

What you need to know

This market is asking how high SPY — the most widely traded fund that tracks the S&P 500 index — will climb at some point during June 2026. SPY is a single share that mirrors the performance of 500 large US companies combined. Each price target ($700, $710, $720) is a separate Yes/No question: did SPY touch that price or higher at any moment during regular trading hours in June 2026? The higher the target, the bigger the rally required. Each target resolves Yes if SPY's price reaches that level — or higher — even for just one minute during normal trading hours (9:30 AM to 4:00 PM ET) on any day in June 2026. It only needs to happen once. Prices are checked using one-minute price data from a source called Pyth. Pre-market and after-hours moves don't count. If SPY does a stock split, the target prices adjust automatically to match. If Pyth's data is unavailable, the official daily high from the exchange is used instead. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. The kinds of developments worth watching would be major economic reports (like US jobs or inflation data), Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, and any large geopolitical events — all of which can meaningfully move the S&P 500 up or down over a multi-month horizon. A full year of stock market movement is genuinely hard to forecast. The three targets span a range, and the market currently prices the lowest ($700) at 41% and the highest ($720) at 84% — suggesting traders see a meaningful spread of outcomes. A lot can change: inflation data, interest rate decisions, corporate earnings, geopolitical shocks, or a sudden recession scare could all push SPY sharply in either direction. The market is pricing confidence in higher levels, but unexpected events are exactly what makes 12-month forecasts uncertain.

The odds right now

• ↓ $720+48.5 pts (1w)82%
• ↓ $710+31.0 pts (1w)56%
• ↓ $700+23.5 pts (1w)40%
• ↓ $690+25.0 pts (1w)35%
• ↓ $680+14.0 pts (1w)23%
• ↑ $770-24.5 pts (1w)10%
• ↑ $780-13.0 pts (1w)6%
• ↑ $790-7.3 pts (1w)4%
• ↑ $800-3.8 pts (1w)3%
• ↑ $810-0.5 pts (1w)2%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 1, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during June 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPY) has a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. Prices occurring during pre-market or after-hours trading will not qualify. Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the S&P 500 (SPY) "Low" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD?t=1773432000) If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily low price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.

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