What will Gold (XAUUSD) hit in June 2026?

What you need to know

This market is asking whether gold's price will drop low enough — or rise high enough — to touch a specific dollar level at any moment during June 2026 trading. There are three separate price targets, each its own Yes/No question: $4,100, $4,000, and $3,900. The arrows point downward, meaning these are floor targets — the question is whether gold will fall to or below each price. A Yes means gold touched that level at least once during June; a No means it never did. Each market settles Yes if, during any single one-minute window in June 2026 trading sessions, gold's price touches or goes below the listed level. Even one brief dip counts — it doesn't need to stay there. The price is checked using a specific data feed called Pyth, reading one-minute candle highs and lows. If Pyth goes down, the backup is CME COMEX futures data. Trading hours run nearly 24/5 — Sunday evening through Friday afternoon Eastern Time — with only a one-hour daily break, so there are many windows where a touch could occur. One relevant headline stands out: as of June 10, 2026, gold reportedly fell to an 11-week low amid rising oil prices and fresh US-Iran tensions. That suggests gold has already been moving meaningfully lower in early June — which is directly relevant to whether the $3,900 or $4,000 targets get touched. The other headlines are about small mining companies and are not relevant to the gold price itself. Gold is a notoriously reactive asset — it can swing sharply on geopolitical news, inflation data, central bank decisions, or currency moves, often within hours. The 11-week low news suggests some downward pressure is already present, but how far that continues is genuinely unknown. There's also most of June still ahead. The market prices $3,900 at 13%, $4,000 at 33%, and $4,100 at 73% — implying the deepest drop is seen as unlikely but far from impossible, while a $4,100 touch is considered quite probable.

The odds right now

• ↓ $4,100+74.5 pts (1w)86%
• ↓ $4,000+37.4 pts (1w)48%
• ↓ $3,900+11.3 pts (1w)17%
• ↑ $4,600-44.0 pts (1w)14%
• ↑ $4,700-31.3 pts (1w)5%
• ↑ $4,800-16.0 pts (1w)4%
• ↑ $4,900-8.7 pts (1w)3%
• ↑ $5,000-4.3 pts (1w)2%
• ↑ $5,100-2.9 pts (1w)2%
• ↑ $5,200-1.7 pts (1w)1%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 1, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point after market creation and during a trading session of June 2026, any 1-minute candle for Gold (XAUUSD) has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only prices achieved during an applicable trading session of the specified timeframe’s business days will be considered. The trading session for a given business day typically begins at 6:00 PM ET on the prior calendar date. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours. Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Gold (XAUUSD) does not trade at all during the listed time frame, this market will resolve to "No". In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the Gold (XAUUSD) "High" and "Low" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Metal.XAU%2FUSD, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high/low price published for the relevant CME COMEX futures contract for the underlying metal—COMEX Gold Futures (GC)—may be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.

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