What will Kevin Warsh say during June Press Conference?

What you need to know

This market is asking whether Kevin Warsh will say specific words or phrases out loud during a scheduled Federal Reserve press conference on June 17, 2026. The Fed (short for Federal Reserve) is the U.S. central bank, and it holds regular press conferences after deciding whether to raise, lower, or hold interest rates. Warsh is expected to lead that meeting. Each phrase — like 'Rate / Cut,' 'Good Afternoon,' or 'Maximum Employment' — is its own separate Yes/No question: did he say it, or not? Each phrase resolves Yes if Warsh says it at any point during his opening statement or the Q&A session on June 17, 2026, starting at 2:30 PM ET. The exact word form matters: plurals and possessives count, but other related forms do not (so 'cutting' would not count for 'cut'). If the press conference doesn't happen at all by 11:59 PM ET that day, everything resolves No. The source used to check is the official video and transcript of the event. None of the recent news provided is relevant to this market. The headlines cover unrelated topics like stock trades, Trump's birthday, and AI regulations. What would actually matter to watch for is any news about Kevin Warsh's confirmation status as Fed Chair, or any major economic announcement that could shape what he says at the June 17 press conference. The three phrases sit at very different odds for a reason. 'Good Afternoon' at 81% reflects the simple fact that Fed chairs almost always open with a greeting — but Warsh might not. 'Rate / Cut' and 'Maximum Employment' are standard Fed vocabulary, which is why 'Rate / Cut' sits at 95%. The main uncertainty isn't really a coin toss — it's whether Warsh, who has a reputation for departing from Fed convention, might use noticeably different language than his predecessors. That small chance of the unexpected is what keeps even the highest-priced phrases below 100%.

The odds right now

• Rate / Cut95%
• Good Afternoon81%
• Stable / Stability81%
• Maximum Employment78%
• Chair77%
• Jerome / Powell77%
• Balance Sheet75%
• Artificial Intelligence / AI72%
• FED67%
• Job Market63%
• Dual Mandate54%
• Inflation 40+ times54%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves June 18, 2026

Kevin Warsh is currently scheduled to give an FOMC Introductory Statement and press conference on June 17, 2026, at 2:30 PM ET. This market pertains to his Introductory Statement as well as the following Q&A session. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Warsh says the listed term during the FOMC Press Conference. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. If clips of old interviews or prerecorded videos are aired where Warsh is speaking, those clips will count toward this market's resolution. Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once). If no such statement by Warsh happens by June 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be video and transcripts of the FOMC Press conference.

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