What will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be?

What you need to know

This market is asking: when SpaceX goes public on the stock market, what will the company be valued at the moment its shares are officially priced for the IPO? The leading bracket — $1.75 to $2.00 trillion — covers a range roughly comparable to the total value of some of the world's largest companies. A 'Yes' for that bracket means SpaceX's IPO price, multiplied by all its shares, lands in that window. Other brackets cover higher or lower outcomes. The market settles using one specific number: the final IPO price per share multiplied by all shares outstanding, as written in SpaceX's final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Importantly, the first-day trading price does not count — only the official offering price set before trading begins. There is one critical edge case: if SpaceX had not completed its IPO by December 31, 2026, the market would automatically resolve to the lowest bracket regardless of any private valuations. SpaceX appears to have already gone public. News from June 12, 2026 reports that Gwynne Shotwell rang the Nasdaq opening bell and that SpaceX stock rose roughly 25% in early trading. This means the IPO has likely already happened and the official offering price — the number that determines resolution — should be available or close to being confirmed in SpaceX's final SEC prospectus. The 25% first-day jump is interesting context but does not affect resolution. The main remaining uncertainty is confirming the exact official IPO price and total share count from the final SEC prospectus, since that precise math determines which bracket wins. The market prices the $1.75–2.00 trillion range at 89%, so it is heavily one-sided — the primary question now is simply whether the final prospectus number lands cleanly in that range or surprises by falling slightly outside it. The 25% first-day pop does not change resolution, but the pre-IPO offering math still needs official confirmation.

The odds right now

• 1.75-2.00T+21.5 pts (1w)98%
• 1.50-1.75T-10.8 pts (1w)2%
• 2.25-2.50T-0.1 pts (1w)1%
• 2.50T++0.1 pts (1w)1%
• <1.25T+0.1 pts (1w)0%
• 2.00-2.25T-7.3 pts (1w)0%
• 1.25-1.50T-2.0 pts (1w)0%

Price history

How this resolves

This market will resolve according to the implied equity valuation of SpaceX at its initial public offering (IPO) price. The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered. Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered. If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range. If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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