When will GPT-5.6 be released?

What you need to know

This market is asking exactly which week OpenAI publicly releases its next model after GPT-5.5 — whether that happens in the earlier window (June 15–21), the later window (June 22–28), or not at all before the market closes. A 'Yes' for a given week means the model dropped publicly during those specific days. The market covers any model that effectively plays the GPT-5.6 role — including specialized or efficiency variants — but not a full next-generation jump to something like GPT-6. The market settles based on the exact Eastern Time date when OpenAI makes a qualifying model publicly accessible — meaning anyone can use it, not just invited testers. A closed beta or private early access does not count. The model must be genuinely reachable by the public and officially labeled by OpenAI, not just a placeholder name on a website. Crucially, task-specialized models (like a coding or transcription variant) and smaller efficiency models (like a Mini or Nano) do count — but a full new generation like GPT-6 would not. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. The kind of developments worth watching for would be any official OpenAI announcements about upcoming model releases, leaks of internal version numbers, or public blog posts signaling a launch timeline — any of those would move the needle on which week the market favors. The core challenge here is that OpenAI does not follow a predictable, publicly announced release schedule. The two leading windows — June 15–21 and June 22–28 — are priced nearly equally at 41% and 45%, which honestly reflects how little outside observers know about the exact timing. There is also a naming ambiguity: the criteria allow for variants like GPT-5.7 or specialized models to qualify, so the question of what even 'counts' adds a layer of uncertainty beyond just the release date itself.

The odds right now

• June 22–June 28+43.5 pts (1w)51%
• June 15–June 21-4.0 pts (1w)19%
• June 8–June 14-39.1 pts (1w)16%
• Not released by June 28+3.6 pts (1w)11%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves June 28, 2026

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public. GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward this market) Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

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