Where will Trump and Putin meet next?

What you need to know

This market asks whether Trump and Putin will meet face-to-face — and if so, where — before the end of June 2026. A 'Yes' in any location means the two leaders actually sat down, shook hands, or spoke directly in person. A 'No meeting' result means that never happened within the timeframe, no matter how many phone calls or negotiations took place. The location options (Russia, Turkey, etc.) matter because whichever country hosts the meeting is what the market resolves to. For a meeting to count, Trump and Putin must be physically present together and directly interact — a handshake, a conversation, some clear personal exchange. Just being in the same building or event without that direct contact doesn't qualify. The window runs from September 30, 2025 through June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. The location chosen by credible news reporting determines which option wins. If no such meeting happens before that deadline, the 'No meeting' option resolves as correct. The provided headlines are focused on a U.S.-Iran crisis in June 2026 — including reported Iranian strikes on U.S. targets and a potential nuclear deal — with no mention of any Trump-Putin meeting or plans for one. That geopolitical turbulence may be consuming diplomatic bandwidth. News that would actually matter here would be any confirmed summit announcement, a ceasefire in Ukraine that required direct talks, or a neutral venue being agreed upon. The market prices this at 98% chance of no meeting, so the honest picture is lopsided: the main uncertainty is simply whether something unexpected breaks through. A sudden Ukraine peace push or diplomatic crisis could force direct contact, but as of now there is no publicly known plan for a face-to-face meeting. The market's slim 2% on actual locations reflects that possibility existing, not that it looks imminent. The Iran crisis in the news may further delay any Russia-focused diplomacy.

The odds right now

• No meeting by June 30+0.6 pts (1w)98%
• Turkey1%
• Russia0%
• Australia+0.2 pts (1w)0%
• United States+0.1 pts (1w)0%
• Other-0.1 pts (1w)0%
• Belarus0%
• Ukraine+0.1 pts (1w)0%
• Gulf country0%
• Other EU country-0.1 pts (1w)0%
• China-0.1 pts (1w)0%
• Finland-0.1 pts (1w)0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves June 30, 2026

This market will resolve according to the location of the next meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin between September 30 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. This market will resolve to "No meeting by June 30" if no qualifying meeting occurs during this market's timeframe. A meeting is defined as any encounter where Putin and Trump are all present and interact with each other in person. An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify. For this market, Gulf states are defined as the six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates). The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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