Which company has best AI model end of July?

What you need to know

This market is asking: which company — Anthropic, Google, or OpenAI — will have the single top-ranked AI chatbot in the world on July 31, 2026, according to one specific public scoreboard? The scoreboard, called Chatbot Arena, ranks AI models based on millions of head-to-head votes from real users who compare two models side by side and pick the better one. Yes for Anthropic means their best model sits at #1 on that day; Yes for Google or OpenAI means one of theirs does instead. On July 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM Eastern Time, someone will visit lmarena.ai, open the Leaderboard tab, turn off 'style control,' and look at which model holds the #1 rank. Whichever company owns that model wins. If two models are tied on rank, the tiebreaker goes to the higher Arena score, then to alphabetical order of company name. The result depends entirely on that one snapshot — not a trend, not an average, just that moment. If the website is down, the check waits until it comes back online. None of the provided news headlines relate to this market — they cover topics like mining, real estate, and foreign policy. There is no relevant recent AI news to point to here. The kind of development worth watching for would be a major new model release from Anthropic, Google, or OpenAI that climbs to the top of the Chatbot Arena leaderboard before the July 2026 deadline. AI model rankings move fast — a company that leads today can be overtaken within weeks by a competitor's new release. The market currently prices Anthropic at 81%, reflecting their strong recent position on Chatbot Arena, but there are still over 13 months until the deadline, which is a very long time in this industry. Google and OpenAI both have the resources to release models that could jump to #1. The main uncertainty is simply whether a surprise release from a competitor displaces whoever is on top closer to the resolution date.

The odds right now

• Anthropic83%
• Google8%
• OpenAI7%
• xAI1%
• Meta1%
• Alibaba1%
• Z.ai1%
• Moonshot1%
• Baidu0%
• DeepSeek0%
• Amazon0%
• Meituan0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 31, 2026

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

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