Which company has top AI model end of June? (Style Control On)

What you need to know

This market asks a simple question: on June 30, 2026, which company — Anthropic, Google, or OpenAI — will have the single highest-ranked AI chatbot on a specific public leaderboard called Chatbot Arena? The 'Style Control On' part is a technical filter the leaderboard uses to measure raw intelligence rather than how polished or verbose a response sounds — think of it as a way to judge the actual thinking, not just the packaging. On June 30, 2026 at 12:00 PM Eastern Time, someone checks the Chatbot Arena leaderboard at lmarena.ai and looks at which model sits in the number-one spot under the 'Text Arena | Overall' tab with style control turned on. Whatever company owns that model wins. Ties are broken first by the exact underlying score, then alphabetically by company name. If the website is down that day, the check is simply delayed until it comes back online. None of the provided news headlines are relevant to this market. The stories cover silver mining, data centers, bank products, and nutrition — nothing about AI model rankings or new releases from Anthropic, Google, or OpenAI. The kind of news that would matter here is a major new model launch from any of these three companies that climbs to the top of Chatbot Arena before the end of June 2026. The AI field moves extremely fast — a single new model release in the weeks before the deadline could reshuffle the rankings completely. That said, the market is heavily one-sided, with Anthropic priced at 88%. The main uncertainty is not really a two-way debate; it is mostly whether something unexpected disrupts Anthropic's current standing. A surprise launch from Google or OpenAI landing at the top of the leaderboard is the scenario the market assigns a low but real probability to.

The odds right now

• Anthropic+4.5 pts (1w)90%
• Google-3.0 pts (1w)8%
• OpenAI-0.1 pts (1w)2%
• Meta-0.1 pts (1w)1%
• DeepSeek-0.1 pts (1w)1%
• xAI-0.3 pts (1w)1%
• Z.ai-0.2 pts (1w)0%
• Mistral0%
• Microsoft-0.2 pts (1w)0%
• Amazon0%
• ByteDance0%
• Alibaba-0.1 pts (1w)0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves June 30, 2026

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

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