Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?

What you need to know

This market asks whether specific countries — the United States, UAE, and Qatar — will have their military ships physically sail through the narrowest chokepoint between Iran and Oman before June 30, 2026. Yes means a warship from that country passed through that specific narrow corridor. No means it didn't — or at least wasn't confirmed to have done so. It's not about ships being somewhere in the region; it's about crossing that particular bottleneck, one of the busiest and most strategically sensitive waterways on Earth. Each country resolves Yes the moment its government, military, or a strong consensus of credible news sources confirms a military vessel crossed the narrowest section of the Strait itself — not just operated nearby in the Persian Gulf or Gulf of Oman. The deadline is June 30, 2026. One important edge case: a naval presence announcement for the broader region doesn't count. The confirmation must specifically reference transit through the Strait. Drone operations, cyberattacks, or actions by allied groups also don't qualify. None of the news provided is relevant to this market. There are no recent reports about naval movements, Strait of Hormuz activity, or military deployments from the US, UAE, or Qatar. If you're watching for developments that would matter here, look for official military deployment announcements or credible reporting specifically mentioning warship transits through the Strait. The core difficulty is that routine warship transits through the Strait often happen without public announcements — governments don't always confirm individual movements, and the resolution requires explicit confirmation, not just likelihood. The US Navy, for instance, operates in the region regularly, but whether a transit through the specific narrow section gets officially confirmed is a separate question. The relatively modest odds (31%, 25%, 21%) suggest the market sees confirmation — not the transit itself — as the real hurdle.

The odds right now

• United States+8.0 pts (1w)42%
• UAE+17.5 pts (1w)28%
• Pakistan+8.1 pts (1w)20%
• Qatar+12.0 pts (1w)20%
• Saudi Arabia-2.5 pts (1w)14%
• Kuwait+3.5 pts (1w)11%
• United Kingdom+2.0 pts (1w)9%
• Bahrain-4.5 pts (1w)8%
• India+2.4 pts (1w)7%
• France7%
• Oman-8.5 pts (1w)6%
• Italy-0.4 pts (1w)5%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves June 30, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify. For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify. Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice. Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

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