Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?

What you need to know

This market is asking which party will *gain the most new seats* in Russia's 2026 parliamentary election — not which party ends up with the most seats overall. That's an important difference. United Russia already dominates the State Duma, so the question is really: who picks up the biggest increase compared to what each party holds right now? A Yes for United Russia means they grow their share further; a Yes for New People or LDPR means one of the smaller parties makes a surprising jump. After the September 2026 election, whoever added the most seats compared to their current count wins. It's settled by looking at seat counts before and after — a net gain comparison, not total seats held. If results aren't confirmed by September 30, 2027, the market resolves as 'Other.' Ties are broken first by total votes received, then alphabetically by party abbreviation. Importantly, the official Russian election commission's results are the final authority if outside reporting is unclear or disputed. None of the news provided is related to Russian politics or the 2026 parliamentary election. There's nothing relevant here to report. The kind of news that would matter includes any changes to Russian electoral rules, shifts in party registration or eligibility, or early polling on party popularity inside Russia. Russian elections are genuinely hard to read from the outside. Independent polling inside Russia is limited, and state influence over the electoral process makes outcomes less predictable through normal methods. The question also hinges on seat *gains*, not totals — so a smaller party starting from a lower base could technically 'win' this market with a modest absolute increase. The market currently prices United Russia at 55% and New People at 36%, reflecting real uncertainty about which party's seat count moves most.

The odds right now

• United Russia (ER)56%
• New People (NL)+3.4 pts (1w)36%
• Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-2.5 pts (1w)5%
• Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)-0.8 pts (1w)3%
• A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP)-0.1 pts (1w)1%
• Rodina0%
• Civic Platform (GP)0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves September 20, 2026

Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election. If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.

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