Which team will replace Iran at World Cup?

What you need to know

This market is asking whether Iran will be removed from the 2026 FIFA World Cup and replaced by another team — and if so, which team takes their spot. Iran has already qualified for the tournament. For this market to resolve to anything other than 'No Replacement,' FIFA would need to officially kick Iran out and hand their place to a different country. Right now, the market overwhelmingly expects that not to happen — Iran stays in, and no replacement is named. The market settles on whichever team FIFA officially confirms as Iran's replacement before December 31, 2026. If FIFA never makes such an announcement — whether because Iran stays in, the tournament is cancelled, or no replacement is confirmed in time — it resolves as 'No Replacement.' FIFA's own announcements are the main source, backed by credible news coverage. The key trigger is an official FIFA decision, not rumors or political pressure alone. The recent news is entirely about diplomacy, not football: as of mid-June 2026, the US and Iran appear close to a peace agreement, with reports of a near-final deal text and ongoing negotiations. This is relevant because a diplomatic resolution between the US and Iran would likely reduce any pressure on FIFA to exclude Iran from the World Cup — making a replacement even less likely than it already appeared. The market is priced at 99% for 'No Replacement,' so this is not a close call — the market strongly implies Iran will simply play. The remaining uncertainty is small but real: FIFA could still act if a major political or legal crisis forces their hand before the tournament begins. The diplomatic news actually points away from that scenario. The main unpredictable factor is whether something sudden and severe changes between now and the tournament — which, by definition, no one can fully rule out.

The odds right now

• No Replacement+1.5 pts (1w)100%
• Italy-0.1 pts (1w)0%
• Other-0.8 pts (1w)0%
• UAE-0.9 pts (1w)0%
• Bolivia0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 31, 2026

This market will resolve in favor of the men’s national team that is confirmed by FIFA to replace the Football Federation Islamic Republic of Iran (IR) at the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If an unlisted men’s national team is officially announced to replace Iran at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, this market will resolve to “Other” If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after December 31 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is no confirmation that any team will replace Iran within that timeframe, the corresponding market will resolve to “No Replacement”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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