Who will attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?

What you need to know

This market is asking which specific person will physically sit at the table representing the United States in the next formal diplomatic meeting with Iran. There are three separate Yes/No questions running at once — one for J.D. Vance, one for Jared Kushner, and one for Steve Witkoff — and each can resolve independently. A 'Yes' means that person was actually in the room, actively participating in real negotiations. A 'No' means they weren't there, whether because someone else went, the meeting didn't happen, or it happened remotely. Each person's market settles Yes only if they are physically present and actively participating in a real, deliberate US-Iran diplomatic meeting before June 30, 2026. The meeting must be in-person and publicly confirmed by a government or credible news reporting. Indirect talks through a mediator count, as long as the listed person is physically present on the US side. Phone calls and video meetings do not count. One important edge case: if no qualifying meeting happens at all before the deadline, all three resolve No. The news right now is unusually active on this topic. As of mid-June 2026, reports suggest a US-Iran memorandum of understanding on a nuclear deal may be coming within days, and Trump has publicly stated that a 'war deal' with Iran is close. Iran has pushed back on some characterizations. This matters a great deal here: if a formal in-person meeting is imminent, the question of who attends it could be answered very soon — well before the June 30 deadline. The biggest uncertainty is who the US actually sends. Witkoff has been the lead negotiator in recent months, but Vance leads the market at 51%, suggesting some traders expect a higher-profile attendee at a potential landmark meeting. Kushner's involvement is less official but not ruled out. Beyond personnel, there's also the question of whether talks that are publicly described as 'close' actually produce a qualifying in-person meeting in time. Diplomacy can stall, get delayed, or shift format — and any of those outcomes changes everything.

The odds right now

• J.D. Vance+35.6 pts (1w)49%
• Jared Kushner+27.0 pts (1w)48%
• Steve Witkoff+9.6 pts (1w)42%
• Marco Rubio+6.3 pts (1w)14%
• Donald Trump+2.6 pts (1w)7%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves June 30, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends the next diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not qualify as diplomatic meetings. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating in negotiations at the meeting. If the next diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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