Who will close Warner Bros. acquisition?

What you need to know

This market is asking which company will actually complete the purchase of Warner Bros. Discovery's movie studios and streaming service — think HBO Max, Warner Bros. film studio, and related assets — before June 30, 2027. A 'Yes' for Paramount means Paramount officially takes ownership and control of those assets. A 'Yes' for Netflix means Netflix does. 'None by June 30, 2027' means the deal doesn't fully close in time, regardless of any announcements. The market settles on whichever company actually closes the deal — meaning full ownership and control transfer — by June 30, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET. There is an important edge case here: an announcement or signed agreement is not enough. The deal must be fully completed. The criteria also note that buying only Warner Bros. Discovery's TV news channels or cable networks, without also getting the studios and streaming business, would not count. Resolution is based on a consensus of news reporting. The most significant recent development is that the U.S. Department of Justice approved Paramount's acquisition of Warner Bros. as of June 13, 2026. This is a major regulatory milestone — it clears a key legal hurdle that was standing between a deal announcement and a completed transaction. The market's 85% odds on Paramount likely reflect this news directly. What still matters to watch is whether the deal formally closes, with full transfer of control, before the June 2027 deadline. The main remaining uncertainty is not whether Paramount will close the deal, but whether anything unexpected could block or delay the final closing before the deadline — even after DOJ approval. Large media mergers can face last-minute complications: financing issues, additional regulatory conditions, shareholder approvals, or litigation from third parties. The market prices this at roughly 85% for Paramount, with about 13% left for 'no deal by the deadline,' which reflects a small but real chance that something disrupts the closing even at this late stage.

The odds right now

• Paramount+12.5 pts (1w)86%
• None by June 30, 2027-9.5 pts (1w)13%
• Netflix+0.3 pts (1w)1%
• Comcast0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves June 30, 2027

This market will resolve according to the first entity that acquires control of Warner Bros. Discovery's studios and streaming businesses by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Transactions that involve only Warner Bros. Discovery's linear television networks, news channels, or other non-studio, non-streaming assets, without also transferring control of its studios and streaming businesses, will not qualify. Announcements of non-finalized arrangements — including, the currently announced Netflix agreement to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery’s studios and streaming businesses — will not qualify. If no entity acquires control of Warner Bros. Discovery's studios and streaming businesses by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "None by June 30 2027". Resolution will be based on by a consensus of reporting.

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