Who will Trump meet with in June?

What you need to know

This market asks whether Trump will have an in-person meeting with each of three world leaders — Ukraine's Zelenskyy, UK's Starmer, and Italy's Meloni — at any point during June 2026. A 'Yes' for each person simply means the two of them were physically in the same room and interacted. A 'No' means the month ended without that happening. Each leader is a separate question with its own odds, even though they're presented together here. Each person's market settles as Yes if credible news outlets confirm an in-person meeting with Trump before midnight ET on June 30, 2026. The encounter doesn't have to be a formal summit — a sideline chat at a multilateral event counts, as long as both people are physically present and interact. Virtual calls or phone conversations do not count. The source of truth is a consensus of credible reporting, not an official government announcement. The main recent development is that the US launched air strikes against Iran in mid-June 2026, following Trump threats. This is significant context because active military operations can scramble diplomatic schedules quickly — leaders may rush to meet Trump to coordinate, or travel plans may shift unpredictably. It's worth watching whether this crisis pulls any of these three leaders into urgent face-to-face diplomacy with Trump before June ends. All three markets are priced extremely high — 96% to 98% — which means the market collectively expects these meetings are nearly certain to happen. At that level, the real question isn't whether it's likely; it's simply whether something unexpected blocks it. That could be a sudden security situation, a health issue, a cancelled summit, or a diplomatic rupture. The Iran strikes add a layer of unpredictability to schedules. But the main honest point is: the market sees very little doubt here.

The odds right now

• Keir Starmer+6.0 pts (1w)98%
• Giorgia Meloni+0.3 pts (1w)96%
• Volodymyr Zelenskyy+23.4 pts (1w)96%
• Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-1.0 pts (1w)84%
• Elon Musk+27.5 pts (1w)49%
• Benjamin Netanyahu+13.0 pts (1w)26%
• Mohammed bin Salman+3.5 pts (1w)12%
• Vladimir Putin+0.7 pts (1w)4%
• Kim Jong Un+0.1 pts (1w)1%
• Xi Jinping-1.5 pts (1w)0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves June 30, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual meets with Donald Trump between June 1 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A meeting is defined as any encounter where both the listed individual and Trump are present and interact with each other in person. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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