Who will Trump publicly praise by June 30?

What you need to know

This market asks whether Trump will say something genuinely complimentary about each of three specific people — FIFA president Gianni Infantino, UFC chairman Dana White, and French president Emmanuel Macron — before July 1, 2026. A 'Yes' means Trump publicly called that person smart, great, impressive, or used similar praise. A 'No' means he never crossed that line, even if he met with them or spoke about them politely. Each person resolves 'Yes' the moment any recorded Trump statement — a speech, interview, social media post, or press comment — contains a clear positive evaluation of that individual. The bar is real praise, not just diplomatic politeness like 'we had a good meeting.' The deadline is June 30, 2026 (ET). One qualifying remark at any point before then is enough. The person doesn't even need to be named, as long as the context makes clear who Trump meant. None of the provided news headlines relate directly to Trump's interactions with Infantino, Dana White, or Macron. No relevant recent statements are available to point to. The kinds of developments worth watching would be: a Trump–Macron meeting or joint statement, any FIFA or World Cup–related event where Trump appears alongside Infantino, or a public moment involving Dana White. Infantino at 97% and Dana White at 90% are heavily one-sided — both have close, well-established relationships with Trump, so the main uncertainty is simply whether something unusual interrupts that pattern before the deadline. Macron at 67% is the genuinely open question: their relationship has been warm at times and tense at others, and geopolitical disagreements could easily produce a stretch where Trump goes publicly critical rather than complimentary. The broad definition of 'praise' makes Yes easier to reach, but also means a single offhand compliment buried in criticism still counts.

The odds right now

• Gianni Infantino+8.9 pts (1w)99%
• Dana White-1.5 pts (1w)92%
• Emmanuel Macron+17.5 pts (1w)72%
• Mark Rutte-20.5 pts (1w)42%
• Delcy Rodriguez+11.5 pts (1w)39%
• Brett Kavanaugh+6.0 pts (1w)37%
• Sheikh Tamim al-Thani-13.5 pts (1w)36%
• Cristiano Ronaldo-15.5 pts (1w)35%
• King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud-16.0 pts (1w)35%
• Lionel Messi+13.0 pts (1w)33%
• Susan Dell-12.5 pts (1w)31%
• Pelé-5.0 pts (1w)30%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 1, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly praises the listed individual between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying statement includes any remark by Trump that expresses approval, admiration, respect, or endorsement of the listed individual personally or professionally. This can include direct praise (e.g., “He/She is smart,” “He’s/She's a great leader”) or equivalent positive descriptions (“impressive,” “strong,” “brilliant,” “doing a great job”) made in reference to the listed individual. Any statement that clearly expresses approval, admiration, or endorsement of the listed individual personally qualifies for this market regardless of context (e.g., "He/She is very smart, but he/she doesn’t seem to know that this policy will harm more of his/her constituents." would qualify). General neutrality or polite diplomatic language (e.g., “We had a good meeting”) will not qualify unless it contains a clear element of positive evaluation. A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that he is the subject. Any written, verbal, or recorded usage will qualify. The resolution source for this market will be public statements from Donald Trump.

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