Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?

What you need to know

This market asks a very specific question: will Hamas make an official public announcement that it will give up its weapons — all, some, or in stages — before June 30, 2026? A Yes means Hamas formally commits to disarmament as a policy. A No means that announcement never comes by the deadline, whether because Hamas refuses, talks collapse, or the situation simply stays unresolved. It does not ask whether disarmament actually happens — only whether the formal commitment is made. The market settles Yes only if Hamas's recognized leadership makes a formal, public disarmament announcement by June 30, 2026. Even a partial commitment — surrendering one type of weapon, or agreeing to disarm in phases — counts, as long as it is a real policy declaration, not just a vague statement or a conditional promise. Informal hints, off-the-record signals, or pledges tied to future conditions do not qualify. The judge is essentially the public record: official Hamas statements or a clear consensus among credible news organizations. None of the provided news headlines relate to Hamas, Gaza, or disarmament negotiations in any way. There is no recent relevant news to point to here. The kind of development that would actually matter to watch for would be ceasefire talks producing a formal political framework, or Hamas leadership making any public statements about its military future. The market prices this at just 7%, meaning participants overwhelmingly expect No — and Hamas has historically treated its armed status as non-negotiable, central to its identity. That makes the main uncertainty not really a balanced debate but rather whether something truly unexpected breaks through: a dramatic shift in leadership, a ceasefire deal with unusual terms, or outside pressure strong enough to change the calculus. The question is less 'which way will this go' and more 'could a genuine surprise occur before June 2026.'

The odds right now

• June 30, 2026+2.1 pts (1w)7%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves June 30, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify. For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip. Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process. Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered. Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hamas leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.

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