Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?

2%Updated 6 min ago

What you need to know

This market is asking whether the event described in Christian theology as the Second Coming — Jesus Christ physically returning to Earth — will happen before the end of 2026. A Yes means that event occurs and is widely recognized as having occurred. A No means it does not happen by that deadline, which is how this market will almost certainly settle, given the nature of the question. The market settles Yes only if the Second Coming actually takes place before December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM Eastern Time. The criteria say resolution depends on a 'consensus of credible sources' — meaning it would need to be broadly recognized as a real, documented event, not just claimed by one group. If that does not happen, it resolves No. There is no partial credit or gray area built into the criteria. None of the recent headlines provided are relevant to this question. A scripture reflection and an interfaith council story touch on religion broadly, but nothing in the news relates to the specific event this market is asking about. The kind of development that would matter here is, by definition, something that has never happened in recorded history. At 2%, the market is not treating this as a close call — it is priced as almost certain to resolve No. The tiny 2% is less a real forecast and more a reflection that no one can assign absolute zero probability to any event. The honest uncertainty here is not 'which side will win' but simply whether something entirely outside normal expectation occurs. There are no competing data points or forecasts to weigh; the question is essentially unanswerable through ordinary analysis.