Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?

What you need to know

This market asks whether Russian forces will fully take over the city of Kostyantynivka — a mid-sized city in eastern Ukraine's Donetsk region — before the end of 2026. A 'Yes' means Russia controls every part of the city. A 'No' means Ukraine still holds some or all of it when the deadline arrives. There are actually two deadlines here: one in June 2026 (priced at just 2%) and one in December 2026 (priced at 42%), so the market is really tracking how fast, if at all, Russia could take the whole city. The market settles 'Yes' if a war-tracking organization called ISW — the Institute for the Study of War — shades the entire Kostyantynivka municipality red on their public map by 11:59 PM ET on the deadline date. That shading must hold through at least one full day of updates, so a fleeting change doesn't count. One important edge case: if a peace deal gives Russia actual physical control of the city, that also counts as Yes — but just a signed agreement on paper, without boots on the ground, does not. None of the provided recent headlines relate directly to the military situation around Kostyantynivka. The most contextually relevant item is that both Putin and Zelensky spoke with Trump on June 14, 2026, suggesting diplomacy around the war is active. What would actually matter here is news about frontline movements near Kostyantynivka specifically, or a significant ceasefire or territorial agreement that changes who controls Donetsk. The December deadline is priced at 42%, reflecting genuine two-sided uncertainty. Urban warfare in Donetsk has been slow and grinding — cities that look close to falling on a map can hold out for months or years. At the same time, frontlines do shift, and a negotiated settlement could transfer territory without a single shot. The pace of any ceasefire talks adds another layer of unpredictability that has nothing to do with battlefield progress. With over 18 months remaining, a lot can change in either direction.

The odds right now

• December 31+7.5 pts (1w)43%
• June 30-0.2 pts (1w)2%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves December 31, 2026

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Kostyantynivka, Donetsk Oblast, (48.528896° N, 37.702514° E) by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Kostyantynivka will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the resolution date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Once Russia captures the entirety of the specified area, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/p9N3w6yRVfjx6cuZ8 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.

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